Feast your eyes on the (soft) launch of Next TMT, a newsletter focused on the collission of technology, media and telecom, covering everything from video streaming to legacy pay TV to cable and wireless business and technology, with occasional dips into related areas such as the immersive, interactive and video game sectors.

As we shift our focus from the platform we spent the last five years building, Next TV, we still have many decisions to make, and many more details to reveal. We expect this digital publication will eventually be published several times a week, and it will have some (but not all) paywalled components. But for now, its 3-5 news stories and accompanying Next Text column will appear in your inbox every Sunday for free, fighting for your precious attention and adulation.

So scroll away … a lot more is to come.

— Daniel Frankel

Table of Contents

• Next Text: How O how did David Zaslav, destroyer o …

  • Other news from technology, media and telecom:

• Comcast settles carriage beef involving the Big Te …

• Can Apple TV+ finally find (paid) subscriber tract …

• Why can’t cable and wireless companies be trusted …

• Party on? Cable broadband subscriber growth could …

Next Text: How O how did David Zaslav, destroyer of unreleased movies, allow the disturbing, impossibly incoherent $200 Million Joker: Folie à Deux into this world?

Our weekly SMS exchange between David Bloom and Daniel Frankel also touches on Jeff Shell’s ramp-up and ‘The Ankler’s’ Penske issues; we also ponder, who wins the new DirectDISH headquarters, El Segundo or Englewood?

By Daniel Frankel and David Bloom

DANIEL FRANKEL: I suspect you're beginning to wind down your six-week Italian stopover and return to the cool marine layer of Western Los Angeles. I myself have been spending some time in the desert region near Coachella, where my wife is taking care of her mom. It reached 118 degrees last Sunday, according to my all-electric Hyundai Ioniq 5 ... right before the AC compressor's safety switch kicked it off because it was over-heated. Dehydrated and exhausted, I still made it back to L.A. to get this brand new Next TMT newsletter off the ground, an exciting moment in independent, do-it-yourself journalism. (Or maybe just the beginning of my slow descent into Chapter 11?) Now, I do feel good that I'm no longer in the business of exploiting, at least in a complicit way, female media denizens of wonder and their handlers with bogus honoraria. But being out there on your own is scary stuff, as we all know. I took a break from all of the anxiety on Wednesday of last week to see for myself just how sour the milk was regarding Warner Bros.' massive $200 million flop Joker: Folie à Deux, which had just opened to $37.7 million at around 4,100 North American theaters. (The movie’s ticket revenues cratered 81% this weekend.) I got a sense of what I was in for when I went to pay for my ticket. Five minutes before showtime, my equally ink-stained wretch buddy, Curt, and I were the only ones willing to give up two hours and eight minutes of our lives for this proven box-office turkey. 

Filmmaker Todd Phillips’ sequel to his 2019 hit, Joker, is, not so surprisingly, well-acted -- Joaquin Phoenix once again brings his considerable all, right down to the typically austere and extreme weight loss, as he reprised his Oscar-winning performance as loner schizophrenic Arthur Fleck. And just like with the first film, he alone provides a foundation for engagement -- a kind of 400 on the SAT right off the bat for Phillips for just signing his name. Robert De Niro, who played the glib talk-show host offed by Fleck’s titular ultra ego in the first movie, isn’t around this time to further class up the joint. But Lady Gaga is serviceable as a costar, the crazy chick into the crazy dude. And Phillips’ enterprise is actually chock full of really good supporting performances, such as Brendan Gleeson as a bully-ish prison guard, and Catherine Keener as the defense attorney who struggles valiantly to save Phoenix's mentally ill and somewhat helpless Fleck from the savage "Joker" within him.

But man, I have no idea where Phillips was going with any of it. This was narratively the most confusing, convoluted and above all — disturbing — thing I've seen as an adult. Tons of violence and cruelty. Not a happy ending to absolutely anything. Or purpose. Or reason, for that matter. In fact, there wasn’t one moment of narrative coherence in the whole picture. So much so that it was almost worth having the experience. Like those German tourists who venture to Death Valley in August so they can understand what 130 degrees feels like (it’s 12 degrees hotter than the Walmart EV charging station in Indio, Calif., I can tell you that). And it's almost refreshing to know that a major entertainment company can still churn out really weird shit like this. I mean, how did David Zaslav and Gunnar Wiedenfels, who spent most of last year incinerating unreleased movies that probably delivered better UX than Joker 2, allow this thing to get born into the global box-office? And how often have we seen critics and audiences truly agree on something at this level?  

DAVID BLOOM:  I’m so glad you managed to entertain yourself while I was away. Actually, Italy was mostly insanely lovely and engaging, but frequently rainy (two inches of rain in the six hours before I finally pulled into Milan’s Malpensa Airport on Tuesday). It was still far more temperate than anything in California more than a few miles east of my Santa Monica abode. It’s worth noting that this Joker sequel is also the second nine-figure flop this year for Warner Bros. Discovery’s much-prized, frequently stumbling DC franchises. The other was last spring's Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League, a video game that no one but the accountants paid attention to. But Business Insider deducted from WBD documents that the game’s losses probably topped $200 million, an astonishing number unless you understand that major games are developed these days much like major films.

They have auteurist creatives at the top, and require a few years, a few thousand workers, and a few hundred million dollars to make. And days after release, the game can be effectively dead. DC has new creative leadership, and the Warner film division has newish bosses, too. So there’s likely been a lot of finger-pointing at the foibles of previous administrations in this latest Folie. It’ll be fascinating to see where they go next with a unit that’s a key part of Zaslav’s vision for WBD's future. Given the ugly advance word on Folie a Deux, though, I’m surprised you didn’t also talk about a different, and highly TMT-relevant double-up: the opening episode of Saturday Night Live’s 50th anniversary season last weekend, paired with this weekend's theatrical debut of Saturday Night, Jason Reitman’s film treatment of the 90 minutes leading up to SNL's very first broadcast, with a young Lorne Michaels more or less presiding over a chaotic crew of unknown comic talents who somehow would soon become hugely famous. 

Meanwhile, the hits, or hit jobs, keep coming at Disney, which is shuttering ABC Signature and merging the development teams at Hulu and ABC. That should further squeeze any interesting development ideas out of the Mouse House. As you mentioned with Folie a Deux, there is some odd pleasure to be wrung from watching a giant, weird, problematic film still getting made in this hyper-cautious era. Francis Ford Coppola took decades to make Megalopolis, and the critiques were many, but even the haters acknowledged that the 85-year-old master had something to say, and was willing to use $120 million of his own money to say it. I’m just hoping as we embark on this next chapter of Next Text/Next TMT that we don’t need that kind of seed capital to get people to notice us.  

FRANKEL: Beyond wasting Wednesday afternoon at the movies, I pinged sources all over El Segundo, Calif. and Englewood, Co. last week, trying to get a sense of the directional wind for the big DirecTV/Dish merger. I must admit I didn’t get much info out of it. A lot of private equity interest is calling the shots here. And it seems like a lot of folks could be leaving the office with a cardboard box … But which local employment development office will be cutting the checks? Could be brutal. Also, there was more entertaining coverage by Richard Rushfield in The Ankler on how Jay Penske owns the bowl, the cereal, the milk and the spoon in regard to the now for-profit Golden Globes. I still can’t believe they’re getting away with this!

BLOOM: Who knew The Walking Dead can actually be seen on the Paramount lot rather than over on AMC? Seeing Jeff come out of his shell after his ignominious departure from NBCUniversal should be a most interesting horror show. That show won’t start in earnest, however, until next fall, given all the regulatory niceties involved. Until the Shell shock hits, I’ll remain entranced by “a fathomless sense of abundance,” The New York Times’ phrase for Netflix’s “endless library,” and the implications of all those damned shows on our now shattered and fragmented pop culture. We lost the water cooler conversation, and not just because Iger, Zaslav and Shell cut all the water coolers to save money. That has a lot more implications for our shared conversations and culture, and not just because fewer people will care about who wins the Golden Globes because they didn’t watch any of the nominees. 

FRANKEL: Ah, you sound like one of those MAGA folks who talks about how "smart" Donald Trump is because he gets away with cheating on his taxes (and many other things). Taking over an awards event, making it for-profit, then capitalizing on it through your news pubs’ honoraria is shady as hell … But you are right about this being a pivotal year or the Showbiz Awards Industrial Complex in general. Last week, Amazon MGM Studios’ “global head of awards,’ Debra Birnbaum, announced her departure from the role … and return to Penske Media Group as editor-in-chief of awards site Gold Derby, taking over for retiring founder Tom O’Neil.

It isn’t apparent that a successor for Birnbaum has been established at Amazon, which was an also-ran at the recent Primetime Emmy Awards with 62 nominations and seven actual trophies … and has bristled behind the scenes at Penske’s control of the awards promotion market. Moving on to, er, more dignified media executives, interesting article in CNBC Friday about what Jeff Shell will do with all those "zombie" cable channels when he takes over Paramount. 

BLOOM: Who knew The Walking Dead can actually be seen on the Paramount lot rather than over on AMC? Seeing Jeff come out of his shell after his ignominious departure from NBCUniversal should be a most interesting horror show. That show won’t start in earnest, however, until next fall, given all the regulatory niceties involved. Until the Shell shock hits, I’ll remain entranced by “a fathomless sense of abundance,” The New York Times’ phrase for Netflix’s “endless library,” and the implications of all those damned shows on our now shattered and fragmented pop culture. We lost the water cooler conversation, and not just because Iger, Zaslav and Shell cut all the water coolers to save money. That has a lot more implications for our shared conversations and culture, and not just because fewer people will care about who wins the Golden Globes because they didn’t watch any of the nominees. 

FRANKEL: That endless library is working for Netflix — it was just reported that its UK profits were up 75% last year. As for me, I’ve been fretting about the outcome of Saturday’s USC-vs.-Penn Sate game and the survival of the American Experiment, and grappling with the disruption and loneliness spawned by our elder-care situation. I hope that someone somewhere gets something out of this new publishing venture … and this little ditty from 17-year-old Hackett, Arkansas country/folk singer/songwriter Waylon Wyatt has ear-wormed me.  

Other news from technology, media and telecom:

Comcast settles carriage beef involving the Big Ten’s Pac-12 refugees

West Coast Comcast subscribers now get the Big Ten Network on the cable company’s ‘Popular TV’ tier

This fall, four former Pac-12 athletic programs — USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon — joined the Big Ten.

But the Big Ten’s vaunted westward expansion didn’t account for pay TV coverage. Most Comcast-subscribing fans surrounding these four schools didn’t have access to the Fox-managed Big Ten Network. Those who did were only able to get it on an expensive Xfinity TV tier.

It all culminated in an impasse that has kept West Coast Xfinity TV subscribers from seeing USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon football games — and contests from other sports — on the Big Ten Network for the first seven weeks of the college gridiron season.

Surprisingly, in an era in which Comcast almost never anymore caves to regional-sports-network demands that channels be placed on least-expensive tiers, Fox was able to get the cable giant to put the Big Ten Network on the “Popular TV” tier in California, Oregon and Washington.

— Daniel Frankel

Can Apple TV+ finally find (paid) subscriber traction with Amazon Channels?

Apple's SVOD service remains an afterthought five years after launch. But hooking itself to subscription video's No. 1 signup driver seems like a smart move

Launched on November 1, 2019, Apple TV+ approaches its fifth birthday with a modest track record of water-cooler series hits (Ted Lasso, Severance, The Morning Show, along with 74 Emmy nominations this year), but no discernible evidence of massive consumer uptake.

Apple regularly publishes during quarterly earnings reports revenue and paid user metrics for its combined service portfolio, a grouping that also includes Apple Music and Apple Arcade.

But in five years, the $3.4 trillion technology company has never announced a subscriber number specific to Apple TV+. The issue has been further clouded by the fact that Apple continues to offer purchasers of new Apple gadgets its SVOD free of charge for a stretch of months.

Perhaps the most accurate recent assessment of its uptake came back in July, when equity research company MoffettNathanson (teaming with research firm HarrisX) released this graphic as part of its quarterly All Things Streaming report. The research companies found that only 11% of U.S. households had someone in them who streamed Apple TV+. The only SVOD with lesser usage was decidedly niche Discovery+.

But last week, Apple announced that its ostensibly struggling SVOD will now be sold in the Amazon Prime Video subscription marketplace, a bastion under which Amazon claims anywhere from 5% - 50% of sales for any third-party subscription service it markets, the average being around 30%. 

The parties didn’t disclose what split they arrived at, but undoubtedly, Apple — which will sell its SVOD for the usual $9.99 a month via Amazon — is getting less money versus selling its streaming service directly. 

Apple has its reasons. As this graphic released by research company Antenna in September illustrates, there is no more powerful sales driver for niche SVOD services than the market we used to call a few years ago “Amazon Prime Video Channels.” 

— Daniel Frankel

Why can’t cable and wireless companies be trusted to handle our credit card #s and SSN?

It was yet another week of serious data breaches for Comcast, AT&T, Verizon and others

Telecom companies have long been high-value targets for cybercriminals, given the sensitive consumer data they possess, not to mention the sheer number of customers they hold the goods for.

But the volume of breaches seems to be getting out-of-hand.

Comcast reported to the Maine Attorney General’s Office in August that the names, addresses, social security numbers and birthdates for 237,700 of its customers were exposed back in February amid a security breach at one of its debt-collection agencies, Financial Business and Consumer Solutions.

It was also reported last week that state-sponsored Chinese hackers stole sensitive U.S. government data from AT&T, Verizon and Lumen.

AT&T already paid a $13 million settlement with the FCC last month in the aftermath of a January 2023 data breach that affected 8.9 million of its customers.

Another AT&T cyberattack in April compromised data for all of the company’s wireless customers, nearly 110 million people total.

“We’re making enhancements to how we manage customer information internally, as well as implementing new requirements on our vendors’ data management practices,” an AT&T spokesman told Cybersecurity Dive in September.

But again, the problem is a lot more widespread than AT&T.

For its part, T-Mobile has publicly admitted to eight data breaches occurring between 2018 - 2023. The worse was one that happened in August 2021, when personal data for 76.6 million consumers was exposed.

— Daniel Frankel

Party on? Cable broadband subscriber growth could come back in 2026

The industry might not experience another pandemic-era explosion of good times, but the impacts of the ACP and FWA should eventually clear the way for stable expansion, analyst explains

If you stayed on the ride from the day Charter Communications’ stock peaked at $811.33 a share on Sept. 3, 2021, you’ve lost about 60% of your investment.

Over at Comcast, despite the fact that the asset portfolio is far more diversified, a similar value peak occurred on the same day. Today, investors are down about 33% from that halcyon moment.

That growth was driven mainly by huge numbers of broadband customer acquisitions during the pandemic era. In his report on the cable broadband business last week, equity analyst Craig Moffett said the explosively good times might not be coming back … but the industry should return to customer expansion by 2026.

“The fact that overall market growth (including FWA and satellite) is now about the same as it was just before the COVID crisis — again, net additions in Q2 were virtually identical to net additions in Q2 2019 — is perhaps not a coincidence,” Moffett wrote.

Moffett blames the “noise” from low-priced but functionally limited fixed wireless access competition, as well as the coming — and now going — of the Affordable Broadband Program, as well as other recent federally subsidized ISP efforts, for distorting the U.S. wireline broadband market in recent years.

“In retrospect, the surge in industry broadband net additions that came with COVID probably wasn’t so much a ‘pull forward’ of demand, as it has so often been described, as it was a surge in affordability, facilitated by the introduction of a series of enormous broadband-specific programs and general fiscal and monetary stimulus,” the MoffettNathanson analysts added.

“Those programs, which started with state-level programs that barred disconnects for reasons of non-payment, and which later included direct federal government payments on behalf of lower income households (initially, the Emergency Broadband Benefit Program, or EBBP), culminated with the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP),” Moffett wrote. “Collectively, these initiatives had the effect of sharply boosting broadband penetration in the U.S. during the years 2020 through 2022.”

Moffett also notes that growth of fixed wireless access — which has undoubtedly siphoned off market share from cable — is no longer accelerating.

“As industry growth normalizes after the effects related to the ACP program are finally behind us, while fiber-to-the-home, FWA and DSL continue to see only de minimis changes in net additions YoY, that normalization, too, will be concentrated and amplified for the cable operators,” Moffett wrote.

“We don’t expect it to return cable operators to net unit growth seen in prior years, but we do expect it to translate into a res-stabilizing of the base, particularly when offset against still-accelerating contributions from rural builds,” he added.

— Daniel Frankel