In partnership with

In observance of the end-of-year holidays, Next TMT will not publish on Monday, Dec. 30. What can I say? David says he has plans. We'll be back in your inbox on Monday, Jan. 6. Also, we're marking this issue safe from year-end 2024 look-backs and 2025 “bold predictions.” Happy holidays!

Table of Contents

• Max has seriously high churn … and other insights …

• Next TMT: Has the NBA ‘Moneyballed’ its way into a …

• Charter tapped as MoffettNathanson’s ‘top pick of …

• Get ready for a generative AI short-form video ‘in …

Max has seriously high churn … and other insights and delights from Antenna’s 2024 ‘state-of-subscription-streaming’ extravaganza

As year-end, kitchen-sink research reports go, Antenna’s 2024 Subscription Insights delivers the serious graphical goods — we could stare at it all day. There’s a flurry of relevant data focused on premium SVOD growth and churn, “Black Friday” signups, sports-event programming, virtual MVPDs and numerous other areas of streaming-biz import.

You can visit Antenna’s landing page and look yourself. But here are five charts from the report that we particularly dug:

— Max has nearly 5X net churn compared to Netflix:

— After briefly losing market share amid the “Streaming Wars,” Netflix once again dominates share of new premium SVOD subscribers:

— Hulu added 1.7 million subscribers during last year’s 99-cents-a-month “Black Friday” promotion. Peacock, Max and Paramount+ each added at least 1 million new customers:

— Streaming Super Bowl LVIII brought Paramount+ more than 2 million signups:

— Football’s start in early September continues to drive signups for churn-prone virtual pay TV platforms:

— Daniel Frankel

Please support Next TMT by giving our sponsors a click.

2025 Prediction: A Surge of Self-Serve CTV Buyers

Roku predicts that 2025 will be a breakthrough year for self-serve CTV advertising. Roku Ads Manager makes it easy to integrate CTV into your 2025 marketing mix. Easily segment your target audience, optimize campaigns in real-time, and drive conversions with interactive ad formats and shoppable ads with a Shopify integration. Roku Ads Manager makes CTV advertising accessible and impactful for businesses of any size.

Discover CTV performance on Roku

Next TMT: Has the NBA ‘Moneyballed’ its way into a TV viewership problem?

Our weekly text exchange between veteran reporters David Bloom and Daniel Frankel on all things technology, media and telecom also looks at the first round of the college football playoffs, Amazon’s successful theatrical bomb … and ‘jerk behavior’ of connected gaming

DANIEL FRANKEL: So D Money, you and your Westside Digital Mix cohorts once again put together a stellar event the other night — good conversation with smart people (save for that crazy chat with that lady about weather modification) … And delicious premium ($20-a-drink premium) cocktails at Mon Ami in Santa Monica. If you like your tequila drinks spicy, I highly recommend the “La Gandola.”

To get things started, I’d like to get into NBA TV ratings. From the season’s start through the ridiculously irrelevant NBA Cup on Dec. 13, NBA games on ABC, ESPN and TNT averaged 1.4 million viewers, down 19% from last season. Factor in NBA TV, and the bad shooting stretch ratchets up to 25%. Not surprisingly, divisive culture warriors including Clay Travis and Jason Whitlock have framed the decline around the usual woke-blaming narratives, tracing it all to LeBron James leading mild pregame protests during the 2020 Bubble Playoffs, in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, adorned in “Black Lives Matter” T-shirts.

As we all remember, MAGA took its AK-47s out on its favorite beer brand after the supplier ran a fringe trans-tolerant social ad, so it wouldn’t surprise me if a meaningful but deplorable audience is shunning the “uppity” NBA. But this viewership slippage goes way back, before “woke” became a Fox News wedge word — the NBA TV audience is down nearly 48% since 2012. It’s enough of a problem for NBA Commissioner Adam Silver to acknowledge the viewership decline during NBA Cup Weekend in Las Vegas. He agrees with Shaquille O’Neal’s point that excessive reliance on three-point shooting may have homogenized the game, and by association, reduced fan interest. In an era in which the league is developing talent globally and basketball skill sets and athleticism have reached freakish levels, it seems like everybody’s got a theory about why the TV product is suffering. I like the one about younger demos simply turning away from ESPN, TNT and local cable sports networks, and choosing to absorb the game through short-form highlights and clips on social. (Makes you wonder about that long $76 billion national TV contract the league just got Disney, NBCU and Amazon to sign.) There’s also Lakers Coach JJ Redick’s take (addressed at the 4:30 mark in the YouTube video below). Has all the speculative crap spewed on X actually made things worse, audience-wise? As an aside, Redick, a former NBA sharpshooter himself, also eloquently expressed my confusion over how Charter Communications delivers Spectrum SportsNet to broadband-only subscribers.

DAVID BLOOM: Redick’s ratings musings included a shot at, most likely, the lively lads at Inside the NBA, snarky Hall of Famers who may not routinely “celebrate” the game at a level the rookie coach appreciates. But that kind of knowledgable insider criticism is what makes a show that show. NFL team minority owner Tom Brady should take notes. The preponderance of three-point shots, a worthy ratings suspect, is dictated by the league-wide turn to basketball’s version of Moneyball, optimizing rosters and plays for the highest-percentage shot opportunities available. Baseball also over-optimized, then made several notable improvements to its fusty, slow-moving gameplay that have improved TV ratings. MLB has a ways to go still, but progress abounds. The NBA, in turn, could redraw the three-point arc a foot or two further out, while eliminating the high-percentage corner three that’s even closer. That likely would open up other strategies without inspiring the machine-gunning of defenseless beer cans.

Also a likely ratings suspect: the rapid collapse of regional sports networks. One extremely knowledgeable insider told me RSN rights checks are the year’s second- or third-biggest payday for most NHL, NBA and MLB franchises. Just as importantly, the RSNs’ many games and weekly shoulder content drive deeper fan connection and tune-in, even for games on national networks. It’s what makes Rob Manfred’s goal of gathering all MLB franchises onto a league-operated national service both so interesting and so unlikely to get past the billionaires owning the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox and Mets.

Please support Next TMT by giving our sponsors a click.

Conquer Winter in Style: Best Men’s Sneakers from Nike Air Max.

Winter is here, and it’s time to elevate your look while staying warm and comfortable. The Nike Air Max collection is perfect for the modern man ready to tackle the season. From the edgy Air Max Plus to the versatile AM1, these sneakers combine style with features designed to keep your feet happy all winter long.

Whether you're tackling holiday shopping or celebrating with friends, these kicks are your perfect companion. Find your ideal pair and effortlessly elevate your winter wardrobe this season.

Treat yourself or a loved one to a stylish pair from the collection this holiday season.

Shop the Men’s Collection

FRANKEL: What did you think of round 1 of the expanded College Football Playoff? Typing this sentence late Sunday morning, I’m not seeing any TV ratings yet. There were definitely a few interesting matchups … at least on paper. I was in the Rose Bowl back in September to watch Indiana and quarterback Kurtis Rourke boat race what ended up being a pretty sound UCLA team. I was intrigued by the Hoosiers’ first-round matchup with Notre Dame, which marked only the second time the in-state rivals have played each other since 1959. Rourke bravely battled back from a broken thumb and resulting surgery endured just a month ago, but he didn’t have enough to overcome the most physical college defense in America (which, as a USC wonk, I don’t like to admit). Indiana never felt like they were in it against Notre Dame. Made watching all those Allstate commercials more tedious. The other three first-round games weren’t too competitive, either. Do you really think Ohio State would have manhandled Alabama, which was left out of this year’s dance, the way the Buckeyes beat down Tennessee? (The new Playoff was supposed to fix this kind of speculation.) And as a fellow West Coaster and Pac-12 lamenter, do you think even a 13-0 Arizona State team (much less an 11-2 one) deserves a first-round bye? I believe Texas, which made short work of Clemson to get to the second-round matchup with the resting Sun Devils, will hook the life out of ASU early. And how about ESPN and Disney? Are they going to get $1.3 billion a season of value out of all of this? Or how about Warner Bros., which is paying “nine figures” to sub-lease a few CFP games from ESPN?

BLOOM: Well, what’s the point of sports if we didn’t endlessly argue about meaningless issues? The first year of anything needs some kink-ironing. Ask every Hollywood showrunner how their first season of any successful show evolved. And this will be a successful TV show. Sure, they can tweak the seeding. Maybe the selection committee will focus less on wins and more on schedule strength (Indiana and SMU thrived with the weakest schedules of the 12 contenders). All of that will evolve.

As a gamer, I was intrigued to see Epic Games’ Fortnite as the playoffs’ name sponsor, urging a return to 2017 in the game’s just-launched “OG” version. Non-gamers may not realize what a transformative rocket ship Fortnite has been. It peaked in 2021 at 290 million players (35 million concurrents), but still attracts 110 million monthly active users. It has been a go-to hangout space for teens, who could play and chat with friends on just about any internet-connected device. And the game’s everyone-against-everyone nature means that 99 of any match’s 100 players will lose. That seems to dramatically reduce the jerk behavior that mars so many connected games. These days, Fortnite features ventures such as Disney’s themed world for its many brands, and regular live concerts and performances, a lucrative store and much else. But maybe watching football will get gamers to head back to 2017 for a different kind of match.

FRANKEL: As a gamer? Shouldn’t you be “gaming” golf courses and AARP specials at this point? I was puzzled last week when a Penske showbiz trade put Amazon’s Jake Kasdan-directed Red One on its list of “nepo baby” movie “flops.” The $250 million Christmas-themed action comedy starring Dwayne Johnson, Chris Evans and J.K Simmons as Santa Claus does have a lousy aggregated 30% score among critics. And its $176 million worldwide box-office gross would be disappointing. But it just generated the biggest opening ever on Amazon Prime Video. In Red One’s first four days of online release, 50 million viewers watched, according to Amazon.

“There was no doubt that our strategy needed to include a theatrical release and associated marketing campaign, which drove audiences to theaters and generated awareness for the film with viewers who would ultimately tune in on Prime Video,” Amazon MGM Studios head Jennifer Salke said. Juxtapose Salke’s comments — and the New York Times’ declaration that “streaming success runs through theaters” — against Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos’ remarks during November earnings. Equity analyst Rich Greenfield asked him if a theatrical release is needed to “pierce the zeitgeist.” Sarandos responded: “I’m sure that we can continue to pierce the zeitgeist and have those moments in the culture, even when those moments begin on Netflix.” (Here’s a transcript of that Netflix Q3 earnings call.) As I transition back to you, David, I’ll grant you that it’s not all that contextual, but I am going to post SNL’s last “Weekend Update” segment of 2024, with the crowd cheering for accused murderer Luigi Mangioni. All I can say is that late-stage capitalism produces really weird, unexpected outcomes.

BLOOM: Maybe films have to have a massive theatrical release (and marketing campaign) if their future streaming home doesn’t reach most of the planet and 283 million subscribers. Maybe Salke’s Amazon team is still reflexively enthralled by traditional Hollywood playbooks, like an (unemployed) NBA coach still in love with the mid-level contested jumper. More generally, $150 million of targeted marketing should beget something zeitgeist-piercing. But even with vast marketing budgets, Hollywood still serves up plenty of stiffs (this week’s opening of Focus Features’ vampire-themed horror film Nosferatu not included), so perhaps marketing and theatrical releases aren’t the answer for everything.

Charter tapped as MoffettNathanson’s ‘top pick of 2025’

OK, so we lied — we are including a bit of New Year’s prognostication in this issue, courtesy of equity research firm MoffettNathanson, which named Charter Communications its “Top Pick of 2025.” (Warning: Serious paywall action here.)

“From the time it resumed trading at the beginning of 2010 (at $35 per share) to its peak in September 2021 at $821, Charter’s share price soared more than 23-fold,” analyst Craig Moffett wrote.

As broadband competition intensified, however, the stock buybacks slowed, with capital spending rising to finance network upgrades and expand the cable operator’s rural footprint. The reduced broadband growth also eroded the MSO’s share price — Charter stands at around $351 a share now. But with network upgrades nearing completion, and CAPEX projected to drop by $3.7 billion to $7.7 billion by the end of 2028, the good times could be returning.

“As we enter 2025, Charter is on the brink of returning to the old formula,” Moffett added. “…They will direct that newly available cash to repurchases, buying back shares from Liberty Broadband as part of an announced merger and also buying back shares in the open market. Over the next four years we expect Charter will shrink their shares outstanding by 48%.”

— D.F.

Please support Next TMT by giving our sponsors a click.

Protect Your Brain Like a UFC Fighter: The EMF Solution for Peak Performance and Recovery

Given the elevated risks of brain injuries such as concussions—31% of MMA injuries involve brain trauma—UFC athletes are particularly vulnerable to long-term cognitive health concerns. Aires Tech solutions provide an additional layer of protection by addressing the physiological toll EMF radiation can place on the body. From reducing neuromuscular fatigue during 25-minute bouts to supporting optimal hormone health in the long term, Aires Tech plays a crucial role in helping UFC athletes recover faster, perform better, and safeguard their overall well-being as they push their bodies and minds to their limits in the octagon.

Learn More

Get ready for a generative AI short-form video ‘invasion’ in 2025

You can, er, quibble over his timing, but Jeffrey Katzenberg wasn’t wrong about the short-form mobile video revolution. It does seem to finally be at hand, but it’s generative AI that’s going to make it a reality. (Again, not that “bold” of a prediction.)

With creator tools including OpenAI’s Sora and Google’s Veo 2 hitting the market, we can expect a serious emergence of short-form UGC video to flood the social internet starting in 2025, equity analysts say.

“While the length of GenAI-created video is still quite short (sub 1 minute today, but we suspect 3-5 minutes will be possible next year), we expect this content will start to flood mobile vertical video platforms such as TikTok, Reels, Shorts and Spotlight over the next 12-24 months,” the analysts at Lightshed Partners blogged. The high quality of this content will put even more pressure on producers of premium video content, Lightshed added.

With platforms like YouTube and TikTok increasing their audience share, Paul Pastor, chief business officer of video tech company Quickplay, suggested that more “traditional” video platforms includiung Netflix and Amazon Prime Video integrate short-form strategies of their own.

“While these players continue to prioritize long-form content, a blind spot in short-form strategies threatens the ability to attract, retain, and monetize audiences — especially younger viewers — effectively,” Pastor wrote in Penske showbiz trade guest column. “If what’s past is prologue, this presents a serious threat to their streaming businesses, unless they recognize the opportunity rather than suffer the paradigm paralysis of their predecessors.”

— D.F.